Abstract:Abstract: In order to study the within-host dynamics of COVID-19 and analyze the differences between critical and severe patients, a target cell limited-immune response (TCL-IR) model was proposed. Firstly, the TCL-IR model was constructed based on the target cell limited model and the immune response model, and the expression of within-host reproduction number was obtained; secondly, some parameters in the model were determined according to the existing research, and then other unknown parameters were estimated by the adaptive Metropolis algorithm; finally, the differences between critical and severe patients were analyzed according to the obtained results. The results showed some differences in immune response and viral load between critical and severe patients. The T cell proliferation coefficient and immune apoptosis rate were 0.652 and 4.137×10-6, respectively, in critical patients, and were 0.266 and 3.283×10-6, respectively, in se-vere patients. The viral load in critical patients reached a peak value of 7.20×104 copies/mL around 35 days after infection, and the viral load in severe patients reached a higher peak value of 1.38×105 copies/mL around 28 days. Based on result analysis and literature review, the study found that the severity of some critical patients was not due to a high viral load, but to their own excessive immune response. Therefore, im-munomodulatory strategies should be considered in the treatment of critical patients.
引用本文:
沈俊强, 唐旭清. COVID-19急症与重症宿主内动力学建模研究[J]. 生命科学研究, 2022, 26(4): 291-300.
SHEN Jun-qiang, TANG Xu-qing. Modeling of Within-host Dynamics for Critical and Severe COVID-19 Patients. Life Science Research, 2022, 26(4): 291-300.